The Hype Cycle, also known as the technology hype cycle, is a graphical representation that describes the maturity, adoption, and expectations of new technology or innovation over time.

Figure 1. General hypy cycle for technology. From Tarkovskiy, 2013. (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Theory to be learned:Hype Curve
Field of Science:Computer Science
Prerequisites:-
Relations to Super* Theory: Related to expectations and human behavior. An extended model of the curve has been published by the Super* Project.
Level of Difficulty
★

Hype Cycle was introduced by Gartner, Inc. in the 1990s as a way to track the lifecycle of new technologies and provide insights into their potential impact on business and society.

The Hype Cycle typically consists of five phases:

1. Technology Trigger: This is the initial phase of the Hype Cycle, where a new technology or innovation is introduced to the public. It can be a breakthrough or a significant advancement that captures the attention of early adopters, technology experts, and the media. At this stage, expectations and excitement are high, but the practical applications and real benefits of the innovation may not yet be fully understood.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: In this phase, the technology experiences significant attention and hype, leading to unrealistic expectations and exaggerated promises about its potential. Media attention and general interest are at their peak, and early adopters may have numerous success stories of initial benefits. However, as the technology matures, some of these inflated expectations are revealed to be unfounded.

3. Trough of Disillusionment: As the initial hype wanes and the technology encounters real challenges and limitations, it enters the "Trough of Disillusionment." In this phase, interest and media visibility decrease as many trials and implementations fail to meet the exaggerated expectations. Some may even categorize the technology as a failure. This phase is a critical test for the viability of the technology.

4. Slope of Enlightenment: After the disillusionment phase, the technology begins to mature, and its real benefits and practical applications become better understood. Early challenges and failures are learned from, leading to more realistic expectations and successful implementations. As a result, interest and adoption begin to grow again.

5. Plateau of Productivity: In this final phase, the technology reaches a level of maturity and stability. It has overcome early challenges and limitations and found practical and sustainable uses. The technology is now widely adopted, and its full potential is realized across various industries and applications.

It is important to understand that not all technologies follow this exact hype cycle, and the duration of each phase can vary significantly depending on the specific technology and its context. The Hype Cycle is a useful tool for businesses, investors, and decision-makers to gain an understanding of how technology might develop and make informed decisions about its adoption and investments.

Connections to the Super* project

The Hype Cycle relates to the Super* Project through the development window. The development window has applied the Hype Cycle and mirrored the curve to also describe negative expectations. Thus, the Extended Hype Cycle represents both overly positive and overly negative expectations. In terms of spirituality, the term peak relates to heaven and the pit to hell (see Figure 2). Whenever a person's development phase reaches a critical point (Figure 2), the person has either learned the lesson related to the matter, or the curve jumps back to the beginning. For example, if a person is afraid and drinks alcohol to cope with the fear, they reach the peak through hype. Conversely, alcohol causes a pit into which the person sinks the next day after partying. At this critical point, the person can either "rise to a new peak" towards a new high, or stop drinking and suffer the pains caused by the pit, and then proceed towards normal development. Fear can be managed with various spiritual resources, allowing a person's development to progress along the purple dotted line – without heaven and hell, without substances.

Figure 2. Extended Hype Cycle. (CC BY 4.0 Super* Project)

References

Gartner Hype Curve in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

Tarkovskiy, Olga. (2013). General hype cycle for technology. Retrieved 22.7.2023 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle#/media/File:Hype-Cycle-General.png