The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias and distortion that causes less competent individuals to overestimate their abilities, while more competent individuals may underestimate their own skills. This superiority bias highlights the importance of metacognition and self-awareness in assessing one's own competence. By understanding and recognizing this bias in their own lives, people can develop a more realistic view of their skills and abilities, and work towards improving them.
Figure 1. Self-assurance mirrored against the development of human knowledge and skills. Figure adapts and demonstrates the idea of Dunning-Kruger Effect (CC BY 4.0 Super* Project)
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - Mark Twain
| Theory to be learned: | Dunning-Kruger Effect |
|---|---|
| Field of Science: | Psychology |
| Prerequisites: | Being aware of dark side of people and oneself. |
| Relations to Super* Theory: | Related to basic human psychology, the Hype cycle, and the human development window. |
| Level of Difficulty |
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Basics of Dunning-Kruger Effect
The Dunning-Kruger Effect (also known as the superiority bias) is a cognitive bias that describes a peculiar phenomenon where individuals with limited knowledge and skills overestimate their competence in a specific area. For example, people with the least experience and knowledge in medicine are prone to overestimating their knowledge in that field. Conversely, those with a higher level of expertise may underestimate their abilities. Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger coined this concept in 1999, and since then, it has garnered significant attention in the fields of psychology and social sciences, highlighting how individuals' self-esteem can differ from their actual performance.
The core of the Dunning-Kruger Effect lies in metacognition, which refers to a person's ability to reflect on and evaluate their cognitive processes and knowledge. Individuals with less expertise in a particular area often lack the necessary skills to accurately recognize their deficiencies. As a result, they develop an exaggerated sense of self-confidence and believe they are more skilled or knowledgeable than they actually are. This phenomenon is called the superiority bias.
Example 1: A person practices a sport without a coach. In this situation, the person acts as their own evaluator of technique and development. There is a risk of falling into a cycle where the individual does not improve or refine their technique, yet still believes they are becoming better. However, comparing oneself to other practitioners or keeping track of one's own results and comparing them can reveal the stagnation in performance.
Example 2: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many people considered themselves to be more medically knowledgeable than experts who have studied and worked in the field for decades. Superiority bias can sometimes be recognized when an individual acts with the authority of their own judgment. Their expertise has not been validated by any generally accepted quality standard, but they simply believe in their own knowledge so much that they are absolutely certain of their correctness. For instance, in science, such thinking is not permissible, which is why scientific experts rarely provide definitive answers – typically, science offers suggestions and guidelines. Additionally, scientific findings require peer review – other researchers must obtain the same verifiable results to avoid the superiority bias of an individual researcher. The same person cannot conduct and evaluate the research.
The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions. - Leonardo Da Vinci
Imposter Syndrome – the Opposite of Superiority
The opposite of the superiority bias can be considered a situation where an expert underestimates their own abilities. This underestimation may stem from the expert assuming that others possess similar knowledge to their own. This uncertainty is called imposter syndrome, and it can cause competent individuals to doubt their abilities, even when they have evidence or general acceptance of their skills.
The Dunning-Kruger effect has been observed in various areas, such as academic performance, logical reasoning, emotional intelligence, and motor skills. However, it is not applicable to every aspect of human competence and is most common in areas where individuals are inexperienced and lack sufficient knowledge to accurately assess their abilities. Several factors contribute to the manifestation of the Dunning-Kruger effect. One key factor is a limited understanding of one's own cognitive deficiencies. In other words, incompetent people do not have enough foundational knowledge to recognize what they do not know about a subject. This makes it difficult to accurately assess their true expertise.
Additionally, cognitive biases (such as confirmation bias, where an individual seeks information that confirms their beliefs and disregards opposing information) can reinforce a person's erroneous self-assessment. When a person encounters (sometimes even clear) evidence of their exaggerated self-esteem, these facts may simply be dismissed as irrelevant, biased, distorted, or attributed to some other invented excuse.
Overcoming the Dunning-Kruger effect requires a willingness to learn, accept feedback, and engage in self-reflection. Education and experience play a crucial role in helping people develop a more realistic self-assessment of their abilities and knowledge. Constructive criticism and feedback from peers and mentors can be key in dispelling delusions and fostering genuine skill development. The illustration in Figure 1 above depicts a proposal for an individual's internal journey, where initially, a person has no experience in a particular area and overestimates their own expertise. At some point, the person learns more about the subject and realizes they are a novice. This marks the beginning of a reality-based development opportunity, or the individual's journey to becoming an expert in the given area. Figure 1 was not presented as such in Kruger and Dunning's (1999) original study.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. - Bertrand Russel
In summary, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that causes less competent individuals to overestimate their abilities, while competent individuals may underestimate their skills. This phenomenon highlights the importance of metacognition and self-awareness in assessing one's own competence. By understanding and recognizing the superiority bias, individuals can work on improving their skills and knowledge, as well as develop a more realistic view of their own abilities.
Connections to the Super* Theory
The superiority bias and imposter syndrome are fundamentally related to a person's journey to becoming their best version. If a person believes they are already perfect, their spiritual journey cannot even properly begin. Additionally, the Dunning-Kruger effect, when mirrored in a person's development, is depicted symmetrically with the Hype cycle on an almost identical graph (Figure 1).
References
Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 77(6), Dec 1999., 1121-1134. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121
Exploring Your Mind. (n.d.). The Dunning-Kruger effect: Fictitious inferiority and superiority. https://exploringyourmind.com/dunning-kruger-effect-fictitious-inferiority-superiority/
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